Early, robust mucosal secretory IgA but not IgG response to SARS-CoV-2 spike in oral fluid is associated with faster viral clearance and COVID-19 symptom resolution (preprint)

High priority efforts are under way to support the development of novel mucosal COVID-19 vaccines, such as the US Governments Project NextGen and the Center for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) goal to respond to the next pandemic with a new vaccine in 100 days. However, there is limited consensus about the complementary role of mucosal immunity in disease progression and how the immunogenicity of mucosal vaccines will be evaluated. This study investigated the role of oral mucosal antibody responses in viral clearance and in COVID-19 symptom duration. Participants with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection provided oral fluid for testing with SARS-CoV-2 antibody multiplex assays, nasal swabs for RT-PCR and symptom information at up to eight follow-ups from April 2020 to February 2022. High and moderate oral fluid anti-spike (S) SIgA post infection was associated with significantly higher likelihood of viral clearance and of COVID-19 symptom resolution across age groups. Those with high and moderate anti-S SIgA cleared the virus and recovered 14 days (95% CI: 10-18 days) and 9-10 days (95% CI: 6-14 days) earlier, respectively. Delayed but higher oral fluid anti-S IgG was associated with significantly longer time to viral clearance and recovery. The effect size of moderate or high SIgA was equivalent to prior COVID-19 vaccine immunity, which was also associated with faster clearance and recovery. Unvaccinated adults with prolonged COVID-19 symptoms had significantly lower anti-RBD SIgA 15-30 days after infection onset (p<0.001). Robust mucosal SIgA early post infection appears to support faster clearance of SARS-CoV-2 and recovery from COVID-19 symptoms. This research underscores the importance of harmonizing mucosal immune response assays to evaluate new vaccines that can boost local mucosal immunity. DisclaimerThe findings and conclusions in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Infectious disease surveillance needs for the United States: lessons from COVID-19 (preprint)

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need to upgrade systems for infectious disease surveillance and forecasting and modeling of the spread of infection, both of which inform evidence-based public health guidance and policies. Here, we discuss requirements for an effective surveillance system to support decision making during a pandemic, drawing on the lessons of COVID-19 in the U.S., while looking to jurisdictions in the U.S. and beyond to learn lessons about the value of specific data types. In this report, we define the range of decisions for which surveillance data are required, the data elements needed to inform these decisions and to calibrate inputs and outputs of transmission-dynamic models, and the types of data needed to inform decisions by state, territorial, local, and tribal health authorities. We define actions needed to ensure that such data will be available and consider the contribution of such efforts to improving health equity.

Genetic tracing of market wildlife and viruses at the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic (preprint)

Zoonotic spillovers of viruses have occurred through the animal trade worldwide. The start of the COVID-19 pandemic was traced epidemiologically to the Huanan Wholesale Seafood Market, the site with the most reported wildlife vendors in the city of Wuhan, China. Here, we analyze publicly available qPCR and sequencing data from environmental samples collected in the Huanan market in early 2020. We demonstrate that the SARS-CoV-2 genetic diversity linked to this market is consistent with market emergence, and find increased SARS-CoV-2 positivity near and within a particular wildlife stall. We identify wildlife DNA in all SARS-CoV-2 positive samples from this stall. This includes species such as civets, bamboo rats, porcupines, hedgehogs, and one species, raccoon dogs, known to be capable of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We also detect other animal viruses that infect raccoon dogs, civets, and bamboo rats. Combining metagenomic and phylogenetic approaches, we recover genotypes of market animals and compare them to those from other markets. This analysis provides the genetic basis for a short list of potential intermediate hosts of SARS-CoV-2 to prioritize for retrospective serological testing and viral sampling.

Estimating the population effectiveness of interventions against COVID-19 in France: a modelling study (preprint)

Background Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccines have been widely used to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. However, uncertainty persists regarding the effectiveness of these interventions due to data quality issues, methodological challenges, and differing contextual factors. Accurate estimation of their effects is crucial for future epidemic preparedness. Methods To address this, we developed a population-based mechanistic model that includes the impact of NPIs and vaccines on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and hospitalization rates. Our statistical approach estimated all parameters in one step, accurately propagating uncertainty. We fitted the model to comprehensive epidemiological data in France from March 2020 to October 2021. With the same model, we simulated scenarios of vaccine rollout. Results The first lockdown was the most effective, reducing transmission by 84% (95% confidence interval (CI) 83-85). Subsequent lockdowns had diminished effectiveness (reduction of 74% (69-77) and 11% (9-18), respectively). A 6pm curfew was more effective than one at 8 pm (68% (66-69) vs. 48% (45-49) reduction), while school closures reduced transmission by 15% (12-18). In a scenario without vaccines before November 2021, we predicted 159,000 or 194% (95% prediction interval (PI) 74-424) more deaths and 1,488,000 or 340% (136-689) more hospitalizations. If a vaccine had been available after 100 days, over 71,000 deaths (16,507-204,249) and 384,000 (88,579-1,020,386) hospitalizations could have been averted. Conclusion Our results highlight the substantial impact of NPIs, including lockdowns and curfews, in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. We also demonstrate the value of the 100 days objective of the CEPI initiative for vaccine availability.

Evaluating public health effects of risk-based travel policy for the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland (preprint)

Background: Decisions to impose temporary travel measures are less common as the global epidemiology of COVID-19 evolves. Risk-based travel measures may avoid the need for a complete travel ban, however evaluations of their effects are lacking. Here we investigated the public health effects of a temporary traffic light system introduced in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2021, imposing red-amber-green (RAG) status based on risk assessment. Methods: We analysed data on international flight passengers arriving into Scotland, COVID-19 testing surveillance, and SARS-CoV-2 whole genome sequences to quantify effects of the traffic light system on (i) international travel frequency, (ii) travel-related SARS-CoV-2 case importations, (iii) national SARS-CoV-2 case incidence, and (iv) importation of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants. Results: International flight passengers arriving into Scotland had increased by 754% during the traffic light period. Amber list countries were the most frequently visited and ranked highly for SARS-CoV-2 importations and contribution to national case incidence. Rates of international travel and associated SARS-CoV-2 cases varied significantly across age, health board, and deprivation groups. Multivariable logistic regression revealed SARS-CoV-2 cases detections were less likely among travellers than non-travellers, although increasing from green-to-amber and amber-to-red lists. When examined according to travel destination, SARS-CoV-2 importation risks did not strictly follow RAG designations, and red lists did not prevent establishment of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that country-specific post-arrival screening undertaken in Scotland did not prohibit the public health impact of COVID-19 in Scotland. Travel rates likely contributed to patterns of high SARS-CoV-2 case importation and population impact.

The recency and geographical origins of the bat viruses ancestral to SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 (preprint)

The emergence of SARS-CoV in 2002 and SARS-CoV-2 in 2019 has led to increased sampling of related sarbecoviruses circulating primarily in horseshoe bats. These viruses undergo frequent recombination and exhibit spatial structuring across Asia. Employing recombination-aware phylogenetic inference on bat sarbecoviruses, we find that the closest-inferred bat virus ancestors of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 existed just ~1-3 years prior to their emergence in humans. Phylogeographic analyses examining the movement of related sarbecoviruses demonstrate that they traveled at similar rates to their horseshoe bat hosts and have been circulating for thousands of years in Asia. The closest-inferred bat virus ancestor of SARS-CoV likely circulated in western China, and that of SARS-CoV-2 likely circulated in a region comprising southwest China and northern Laos, both a substantial distance from where they emerged. This distance and recency indicate that the direct ancestors of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 could not have reached their respective sites of emergence via the bat reservoir alone. Our recombination-aware dating and phylogeographic analyses reveal a more accurate inference of evolutionary history than performing only whole-genome or single gene analyses. These results can guide future sampling efforts and demonstrate that viral genomic fragments extremely closely related to SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 were circulating in horseshoe bats, confirming their importance as the reservoir species for SARS viruses.

Surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 in Norway Rats (Rattus norvegicus) from Southern Ontario

The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) from wildlife has raised concerns about spillover from humans to animals, the establishment of novel wildlife reservoirs, and the potential for future outbreaks caused by variants of wildlife origin. Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) are abundant in urban areas and live in close proximity to humans, providing the opportunity for spillover of SARS-CoV-2. Evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and exposure has been reported in Norway rats. We investigated SARS-CoV-2 infection and exposure in Norway rats from Southern Ontario, Canada. From October 2019 to June 2021, 224 rats were submitted by collaborating pest control companies. The majority of samples were collected in Windsor (79.9%;n = 179), Hamilton (13.8%;n = 31), and the Greater Toronto Area (5.8%;n = 13). Overall, 50.0% (n = 112) were female and most rats were sexually mature (55.8%;n = 125). Notably, 202 samples were collected prior to the emergence of variants of concern (VOC) and 22 were collected while the Alpha variant (B.1.1.7) was the predominant circulating VOC in humans. Nasal turbinate (n = 164) and small intestinal (n = 213) tissue samples were analyzed for SARS-CoV-2 RNA by RT-PCR. Thoracic cavity fluid samples (n = 213) were tested for neutralizing antibodies using a surrogate virus neutralization test (sVNT) (GenScript cPass);confirmatory plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT) was conducted on presumptive positive samples. We did not detect SARS-CoV-2 RNA in any samples tested. Two out of eleven samples positive on sVNT had neutralizing antibodies confirmed positive by PRNT (1 : 40 and 1 : 320 PRNT70);both were collected prior to the emergence of VOC. It is imperative that efforts to control and monitor SARS-CoV-2 include surveillance of rats and other relevant wildlife species as novel variants continue to emerge.

The Role of Perceived Risk in the Relationship Between Disgust Sensitivity and COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy.

Background: Despite widespread availability of COVID vaccines and evidence of their efficacy, vaccine hesitancy remains prevalent. Several studies have examined the relationship between disgust sensitivity and vaccine hesitancy. Although results from studies using data collected prior to the COVID pandemic indicate that higher disgust sensitivity is related to greater vaccine hesitancy, results from studies using data collected during the COVID pandemic are equivocal. The present study examined whether perceived risk of contracting COVID moderated the relationship between disgust sensitivity and vaccine hesitancy. Methods: Participants (n = 152) completed self-report measures of disgust sensitivity, perceived risk of contracting COVID, and COVID vaccine hesitancy (defined as both vaccine confidence and vaccine complacency). Results: Perceived risk of contracting COVID significantly moderated the relationship between disgust sensitivity and vaccine complacency, with the association strengthened at low levels of perceived risk. Perceived risk of contracting COVID also marginally moderated the relationship between disgust sensitivity and vaccine confidence, with the association strengthened at low and average levels of perceived risk. Conclusions: Results suggest that individuals with elevated disgust sensitivity who also report low levels of perceived risk of contracting COVID are more likely to express vaccine hesitancy. Implications of these findings are discussed. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10608-023-10391-8.

Long-term outcomes in COVID-19 patients admitted to intensive care in Denmark: A nationwide observational study.

BACKGROUND: Among ICU patients with COVID-19, it is largely unknown how the overall outcome and resource use have changed with time, different genetic variants, and vaccination status. METHODS: For all Danish ICU patients with COVID-19 from March 10, 2020 to March 31, 2022, we manually retrieved data on demographics, comorbidities, vaccination status, use of life support, length of stay, and vital status from medical records. We compared patients based on the period of admittance and vaccination status and described changes in epidemiology related to the Omicron variant. RESULTS: Among all 2167 ICU patients with COVID-19, 327 were admitted during the first (March 10-19, 2020), 1053 during the second (May 20, 2020 to June 30, 2021) and 787 during the third wave (July 1, 2021 to March 31, 2022). We observed changes over the three waves in age (median 72 vs. 68 vs. 65 years), use of invasive mechanical ventilation (81% vs. 58% vs. 51%), renal replacement therapy (26% vs. 13% vs. 12%), extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (7% vs. 3% vs. 2%), duration of invasive mechanical ventilation (median 13 vs. 13 vs. 9 days) and ICU length of stay (median 13 vs. 10 vs. 7 days). Despite these changes, 90-day mortality remained constant (36% vs. 35% vs. 33%). Vaccination rates among ICU patients were 42% as compared to 80% in society. Unvaccinated versus vaccinated patients were younger (median 57 vs. 73 years), had less comorbidity (50% vs. 78%), and had lower 90-day mortality (29% vs. 51%). Patient characteristics changed significantly after the Omicron variant became dominant including a decrease in the use of COVID-specific pharmacological agents from 95% to 69%. CONCLUSIONS: In Danish ICUs, the use of life support declined, while mortality seemed unchanged throughout the three waves of COVID-19. Vaccination rates were lower among ICU patients than in society, but the selected group of vaccinated patients admitted to the ICU still had very severe disease courses. When the Omicron variant became dominant a lower fraction of SARS-CoV-2 positive patients received COVID treatment indicating other causes for ICU admission.

Mpox neglect and the smallpox niche: a problem for Africa, a problem for the world.

Mpox (formerly known as monkeypox) is a zoonotic viral disease endemic in parts of Africa. In May, 2022, the world was alerted to circulation of monkeypox virus in many high-income countries outside of Africa. Continued spread resulted in a WHO declaration of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Although there has been much attention on the global outbreak, most of the focus has been on high-income countries outside of Africa, despite the fact that monkeypox virus has been causing disease in parts of Africa for at least 50 years. Furthermore, the long-term consequences of this event, especially the risk that mpox fills the niche vacated through smallpox eradication, have not been sufficiently considered. The heart of the problem is the historical neglect of mpox in Africa where the disease is endemic, and the actual and potential consequences if this neglect is left uncorrected.

Environmental determinants of infectious and chronic disease prevention behaviours: A systematic review and thematic synthesis of qualitative research.

Regulatory health policies facilitate desired health behaviours in communities, and among them, smoke-free policies and COVID-19 restrictions have been widely implemented. Qualitative research studies have explored how these measures and other environmental influences shape preventive behaviours. The objective of this systematic review was to synthesize previously published qualitative research, generate across-study themes, and propose recommendations for behaviour change interventions. We used a comprehensive search strategy, relevance screening and confirmation, data extraction, quality assessment, thematic synthesis, and quality-of-evidence assessment. In total, 87 relevant studies were identified. Findings were grouped under six overarching themes and mapped under three categories: (i) the political environment, (ii) the sociocultural environment, and (iii) the physical environment. These findings provide insights into the environmental influences of behaviour and indicate future interventions may be more effective by considering moral norms, community norms, policy support, and group identity.

Directions of change in intrinsic case severity across successive SARS-CoV-2 variant waves have been inconsistent.

OBJECTIVES: To determine how the intrinsic severity of successively dominant SARS-CoV-2 variants changed over the course of the pandemic. METHODS: A retrospective cohort analysis in the NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde (NHS GGC) Health Board. All sequenced non-nosocomial adult COVID-19 cases in NHS GGC with relevant SARS-CoV-2 lineages (B.1.177/Alpha, Alpha/Delta, AY.4.2 Delta/non-AY.4.2 Delta, non-AY.4.2 Delta/Omicron, and BA.1 Omicron/BA.2 Omicron) during analysis periods were included. Outcome measures were hospital admission, ICU admission, or death within 28 days of positive COVID-19 test. We report the cumulative odds ratio; the ratio of the odds that an individual experiences a severity event of a given level vs all lower severity levels for the resident and the replacement variant after adjustment. RESULTS: After adjustment for covariates, the cumulative odds ratio was 1.51 (95% CI: 1.08-2.11) for Alpha versus B.1.177, 2.09 (95% CI: 1.42-3.08) for Delta versus Alpha, 0.99 (95% CI: 0.76-1.27) for AY.4.2 Delta versus non-AY.4.2 Delta, 0.49 (95% CI: 0.22-1.06) for Omicron versus non-AY.4.2 Delta, and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.68-1.09) for BA.2 Omicron versus BA.1 Omicron. CONCLUSIONS: The direction of change in intrinsic severity between successively emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants was inconsistent, reminding us that the intrinsic severity of future SARS-CoV-2 variants remains uncertain.

Discomfort and proactiveness of New Zealand OFD consumers during the coronavirus pandemic

In 2020, during the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic, New Zealand's online food delivery (OFD) services saw a marked increase in popularity. New Zealand had received worldwide praise for their approach to fight Covid-19, and online businesses were important contributors, allowing the food service industry to remain viable in the face of severe restrictions. OFD research has found that the determinants of customer loyalty, such as consumer satisfaction, trust, and value are well established and largely depend on food quality, e-service quality, and OFD-service providers not being associated with COVID-19 transmission. The present study aims to fill a research gap and investigate new predictors such as OFD discomfort and proactive COVID-19 strategies, in addition to confirming well-established ones such as sociodemographic factors, perceived infection risk, perceived value, satisfaction, and trust. The Partial Least Square Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) analysis reveals that age is the only significant sociodemographic factor influencing pro-active COVID-19 strategies. While trust and perceived value are positively affected by consumers committed to proactively counteract Covid-19;satisfaction and ultimately loyalty, are positively affected by trust only. Best practice recommendations for marketing managers and OFD service providers are presented. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Journal of Foodservice Business Research is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Adeno-associated virus 2 infection in children with non-A-E hepatitis.

An outbreak of acute hepatitis of unknown aetiology in children was reported in Scotland1 in April 2022 and has now been identified in 35 countries2. Several recent studies have suggested an association with human adenovirus with this outbreak, a virus not commonly associated with hepatitis. Here we report a detailed case-control investigation and find an association between adeno-associated virus 2 (AAV2) infection and host genetics in disease susceptibility. Using next-generation sequencing, PCR with reverse transcription, serology and in situ hybridization, we detected recent infection with AAV2 in plasma and liver samples in 26 out of 32 (81%) cases of hepatitis compared with 5 out of 74 (7%) of samples from unaffected individuals. Furthermore, AAV2 was detected within ballooned hepatocytes alongside a prominent T cell infiltrate in liver biopsy samples. In keeping with a CD4+ T-cell-mediated immune pathology, the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class II HLA-DRB1*04:01 allele was identified in 25 out of 27 cases (93%) compared with a background frequency of 10 out of 64 (16%; P = 5.49 × 10-12). In summary, we report an outbreak of acute paediatric hepatitis associated with AAV2 infection (most likely acquired as a co-infection with human adenovirus that is usually required as a 'helper virus' to support AAV2 replication) and disease susceptibility related to HLA class II status.